My apologies for the delay in updates - I am back now after grading + vacation!

Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 24 2021 10350 44848 324 97 369 561
January 25 2021 10370 44887 326 97 348 561
January 26 2021 10389 44979 330 97 330 533
January 27 2021 10454 45151 335 97 348 533
January 28 2021 10475 45305 335 97 351 494
January 29 2021 10498 45438 335 97 365 476
January 30 2021 10530 45592 336 98 353 471
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 2.7 9.6% 34 0.3% 40 0.35%
10-19 6 4.0 12.5% 44 0.32% 61 0.45%
20-29 6 5.6 19% 67 0.32% 97 0.46%
30-39 3 4.6 15.6% 55 0.4% 74 0.54%
40-49 7 4.3 14.2% 50 0.48% 70 0.67%
50-59 3 4.4 12.2% 43 0.34% 54 0.43%
60-69 3 3.3 9.6% 34 0.3% 43 0.37%
70+ 0 2.4 7.4% 26 0.25% 32 0.31%
All ages 32 31.3 100% 353 0.34% 471 0.45%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 24 2021 6681 26515 200 76 252 417
January 25 2021 6693 26544 200 76 239 398
January 26 2021 6710 26597 201 77 226 367
January 27 2021 6737 26668 201 77 224 382
January 28 2021 6769 26731 202 77 235 340
January 29 2021 6787 26781 203 79 244 333
January 30 2021 6801 26841 204 80 241 317
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 1.6 7.5% 18 0.23% 23 0.3%
10-19 1 2.0 14.1% 34 0.4% 40 0.48%
20-29 1 2.6 11.6% 28 0.39% 38 0.53%
30-39 4 3.9 17.8% 43 0.51% 58 0.69%
40-49 1 3.4 17% 41 0.53% 50 0.64%
50-59 1 3.1 12.9% 31 0.32% 45 0.46%
60-69 3 1.4 8.3% 20 0.24% 26 0.31%
70+ 2 2.6 10.8% 26 0.37% 37 0.52%
All ages 14 20.6 100% 241 0.37% 317 0.49%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 24 2021 5024 17724 212 68 219 300
January 25 2021 5036 17730 213 68 196 299
January 26 2021 5043 17767 213 69 182 283
January 27 2021 5059 17823 216 69 170 287
January 28 2021 5087 17879 216 69 176 282
January 29 2021 5108 17900 217 69 195 268
January 30 2021 5122 17929 217 71 193 261
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.9 3.6% 7 0.13% 9 0.17%
10-19 1 2.3 13% 25 0.46% 44 0.81%
20-29 2 1.9 13.5% 26 0.57% 37 0.82%
30-39 1 1.9 12.4% 24 0.44% 26 0.48%
40-49 1 2.4 15% 29 0.58% 37 0.74%
50-59 4 3.1 15.5% 30 0.44% 42 0.62%
60-69 2 2.3 14.5% 28 0.44% 34 0.54%
70+ 2 1.9 12.4% 24 0.38% 32 0.51%
All ages 14 16.6 100% 193 0.43% 261 0.58%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 24 2021 11299 48149 293 70 372 582
January 25 2021 11382 48266 297 70 422 607
January 26 2021 11417 48422 315 70 412 600
January 27 2021 11458 48566 320 70 433 556
January 28 2021 11503 48711 326 71 425 576
January 29 2021 11647 48927 330 71 545 687
January 30 2021 11687 49068 331 72 524 682
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 3.3 6.3% 33 0.28% 46 0.39%
10-19 3 13.6 21% 110 0.66% 138 0.83%
20-29 3 16.7 26.7% 140 0.66% 158 0.74%
30-39 9 5.9 11.8% 62 0.46% 89 0.65%
40-49 7 6.1 11.5% 60 0.44% 84 0.62%
50-59 8 6.6 12% 63 0.44% 78 0.55%
60-69 5 3.1 6.1% 32 0.23% 50 0.35%
70+ 1 3.0 4.6% 24 0.18% 39 0.3%
All ages 40 58.3 100% 524 0.44% 682 0.58%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 24 2021 37193 308041 1121 231 1206 1802
January 25 2021 37285 308444 1124 229 1159 1759
January 26 2021 37352 309153 1128 240 1055 1719
January 27 2021 37396 309826 1133 240 963 1653
January 28 2021 37600 310610 1138 244 1078 1613
January 29 2021 37707 311398 1139 245 1144 1581
January 30 2021 37848 311926 1146 251 1259 1551
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 5.9 4.8% 60 0.1% 77 0.13%
10-19 27 16.3 14% 176 0.25% 211 0.3%
20-29 46 31.3 26% 327 0.31% 406 0.39%
30-39 15 15.4 16% 202 0.26% 254 0.33%
40-49 15 14.4 13.2% 166 0.25% 201 0.31%
50-59 18 15.6 14.3% 180 0.27% 205 0.31%
60-69 7 6.7 6.9% 87 0.16% 117 0.21%
70+ 9 4.4 4.8% 61 0.12% 80 0.16%
All ages 141 110.0 100% 1259 0.23% 1551 0.28%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 24 2021 532971 2474335 23692 5691 16989 26081
January 25 2021 533917 2477588 23748 5699 15666 25571
January 26 2021 535218 2481735 23883 5753 15030 24082
January 27 2021 536546 2486960 23976 5787 14752 23276
January 28 2021 538348 2493144 24063 5811 15471 22366
January 29 2021 539915 2498517 24154 5860 15513 21664
January 30 2021 541408 2503387 24243 5893 15484 21220
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 83 83.0 6.1% 940 0.15% 1269 0.2%
10-19 185 177.3 12.9% 2005 0.26% 2749 0.36%
20-29 262 214.4 16.2% 2503 0.33% 3399 0.45%
30-39 214 196.6 14.8% 2299 0.3% 3199 0.42%
40-49 207 198.6 14.1% 2180 0.31% 2943 0.42%
50-59 214 203.6 14.7% 2275 0.28% 3116 0.38%
60-69 185 155.7 11.2% 1735 0.23% 2395 0.32%
70+ 143 136.0 10% 1547 0.24% 2150 0.34%
All ages 1493 1365.1 100% 15484 0.27% 21220 0.36%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
45 44.8 46.3 31.3 39.6 20.2%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
49 20.6 28.6 27.6%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
57.7 16.6 21.9 32.3%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
57.7 83.4 74.2 58.3 40.7 29.2%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
28.4 29.7 39.1 110 132.9 13.7%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
36.4 36.3 44.9 1365.1 1895.1 21.8%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

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Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.61 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-20 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5013"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red